Politicians in Mexico, India, and Poland are looking to emigré citizens in their electoral campaigns.

DECEMBER 19, 2023

In late September, Mexican presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez embarked on a two-day visit to the United States. The senator didn’t visit her American counterparts in Congress. Instead, Gálvez met with leaders of the Mexican migrant community in Southern California. She gathered with Mexican members of the film and television industry in Los Angeles. Her trip concluded with a visit to the seaside city of Oxnard, where she met bandana-clad Mexican female day laborers amid strawberry fields and talked about improving the working conditions of migrants.

“I am convinced that Mexico is a country of 170 million people divided by a river, and this is our country’s 33rd state,” Gálvez said in a video. Originally a tech entrepreneur, Gálvez served as former President Vicente Fox’s minister of Indigenous affairs in the early 2000s and is currently backed by the conservative National Action Party along with the opposition coalition, Broad Front for Mexico. Although she was once a little-known senator, Gálvez’s rabble-rousing attitude against Mexico’s ruling party earned her vast media attention over the summer.

The growing political influence of Mexicans residing abroad has parties vying for their attention. Over the course of the past few months, several electoral candidates have traveled north to try to mobilize Mexicans living in the U.S.

The tactic of looking abroad for votes is not limited to Mexican politics: Recent Polish, Turkish and Indian elections have made politicians mindful of how communities abroad might affect politics at home through electoral agendas. Migration patterns, heightened communication and new technologies now mean that voters no longer have to be located within a country's borders. A new type of “diaspora politics” now shapes domestic politics around the world.

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In 2021, Mexico amended its constitution to allow for Mexican citizenship to be passed down indefinitely to children born outside of Mexico, regardless of whether their parents were born in the country. Nearly 40 million people of Mexican origin live in the U.S. alone. Of these, 12 million hold Mexican citizenship.

A larger-than-life papier-mâché replica of Sheinbaum’s head, attached to a person wearing a colorfully embroidered Tehuana dress, has also made ceremonial appearances at political rallies in several of New York City’s boroughs.

Their votes have increasingly been a source of interest for Mexican presidential candidates, for whom the U.S. has become a necessary stop on the campaign trail. In February, leading figures of the National Action Party visited Dallas to inaugurate the organization’s first Committee for Migrant Action. This group of 23 Mexicans living in the U.S., Canada and Europe will ostensibly encourage Mexicans abroad to vote in the next elections.

“We want to ask our migrant brothers and sisters to help us correct the course of Mexico, to help us safeguard freedom, democracy and the rights of individuals,” said Marko Cortés, president of the National Action Party, to a crowd of supporters in Houston in April.

Gálvez herself has visited the U.S. twice. In Houston, the senator praised members of the Mexican diaspora for strengthening Mexico’s economy through remittances. She also doubled down on asserting her Otomí heritage and paid respect to Indigenous communities. As she picked strawberries with migrant Mexican workers, she discussed the possibility of expanding social programs to include Mexicans living abroad.

Her rivals have caught on to this tactic, too. A few weeks after Gálvez’s visit to Southern California, Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico’s governing Morena party held a rally with supporters in Los Angeles. She has met with businesspeople in California to discuss her accomplishments as the former mayor of Mexico City. In downtown Los Angeles, Sheinbaum spoke to a large crowd about the current administration’s accomplishments alongside the president of the Morena party, the governor of the Mexican state of Baja California and U.S.-based activists. In September, a giant ad for Sheinbaum ran in Times Square. A larger-than-life papier-mâché replica of Sheinbaum’s head, attached to a person wearing a colorfully embroidered Tehuana dress, has also made ceremonial appearances at political rallies in several of New York City’s boroughs.

Campaigning abroad on behalf of a political party is considered unconstitutional under Mexican electoral law. To circumvent this law, politicians often frame their visits to the U.S. as “encounters” with Mexican citizens rather than campaign trips.

“I just think that they have started to realize that 12 million Mexicans is a lot of Mexicans.”

Gálvez “can’t campaign abroad, but that doesn’t mean that she can’t visit Mexicans living abroad as a citizen, a woman interested in changing Mexico, or as a senator who wants to listen to them,” said Juán Hernández, a political adviser who serves as the coordinator of the National Action Party’s Committee for Migrant Action.

Earlier this year, Hernández said, Gálvez gathered nearly one-third of the 220,000 signatures she received in support of her presidential run from Mexicans living abroad.

“It’s the first time I’ve witnessed that the Mexican state undoubtedly has an interest in including the Mexican diaspora in Mexican politics,” said Arturo Castillo Loza, a councilperson for the Mexican elections watchdog the National Electoral Institute. “I just think that they have started to realize that 12 million Mexicans is a lot of Mexicans.”

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Beyond Mexico, extraterritorial campaigning has become a more widespread tool of electoral politics.

Earlier this year, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called on Germany to double the number of polling stations in Berlin ahead of his contentious bid for reelection.

He hoped to rally Turks in Germany, who account for nearly half of Turkey’s eligible voting population abroad. Their support for Erdoğan often exceeds support for Erdoğan at home. Berlin turned down the request, citing security concerns. Still, he was able to gain support from Turks in Germany. 67 percent of Turkish voters in Germany supported Erdoğan in his runoff against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, then leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party, compared with the 52 percent of the vote Erdoğan received overall.

“A form of unprecedented political activism is being carried out by Turkey’s diaspora with encouragement from the Turkish state, which seeks to defend and advance Turkey’s interests internationally,” Ayca Arkilic, a comparative politics scholar at the Victoria University of Wellington, wrote in an email.

The Polish diaspora has also played an important part in recent elections. Half a million Poles living abroad are registered to vote; 90 percent of them participated in the most recent election, with the majority of them voting from Great Britain and Germany.

These diaspora votes have become politically contentious. Recent changes to Polish electoral laws pushed by the dominant right-wing Law and Justice party jeopardized the full participation of its diaspora by demanding that votes from abroad be counted within the span of 24 hours, though no such limits exist for votes cast in Poland. According to Krzysia Balinska — a member of Polish Diaspora Vote, a nongovernmental organization that facilitates diaspora voting in the UK — this move was politically motivated. In the most recent elections, 39 percent of votes cast abroad went to the Civic Coalition, which successfully unseated the ruling Law and Justice party.

Prior to the elections, the largest opposition party sought to appoint a commissioner to oversee the electoral rights of Poles abroad and support Polish cultural institutions.

“We felt like this was clearly a political action because the powers in Poland know that we don’t tend to vote in favor of them,” said Balinksa, referring to the Law and Justice party,

Domestic politics are now an international affair.

In India, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar recently pushed for the government to facilitate electronic voting for the 1.34 million “non-resident Indians” who can currently vote only by showing up in person to their assigned polling stations in India. Recent proposals to allow overseas voters to send proxies to polling stations in India have not been approved. Expanding political access to the diaspora could further entrench support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has strong support abroad.

Such moves reflect a shift in how politicians see voters living outside of national borders. Diasporas were not seen as political and financial assets until the 1990s, said Arkilic, whose recent book explores the impact of diaspora politics on Turkish elections. But changes in migration patterns have affected political outcomes, and technology and cheaper travel have facilitated the relationship between diasporas and their homelands. “Compared to the first-generation who had to spend a lot of time, money, and energy trying to settle down and make a living in their ‘new homes’ despite financial, cultural, and other logistical challenges, it is much easier for younger-generation or more settled migrants to show interest in and follow homeland politics.” Arkilic added. Domestic politics are now an international affair.

Voting registration figures for Mexicans abroad rose in recent years, from just under 60,000 voters in 2012 to over 180,000 in 2018.

Over time, political parties have taken notice.

During his presidency in the early 2000s, Fox, of the National Action Party, courted Mexicans living in the U.S., referring to them as “heroes.” Fox pledged Mexicans abroad the right to vote in successive elections. This promise was fulfilled in 2005, toward the end of his term. By 2015, Mexicans living abroad could vote with an ID that was issued outside of Mexico.

Perhaps no party has been more successful at visibly rallying support from the Mexican diaspora than Morena, the dominant left-leaning party, which is led by Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Prior to his presidency, López Obrador embarked on a U.S. tour. He met with immigrant leaders, businesspeople and scholars through public forums held in five American states.

The purpose of these visits was to “firmly defend” Mexican migrants against then-President Donald Trump’s attacks. He wished to distinguish himself from then-Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s purported inability to “represent Mexico with dignity,” as López Obrador wrote in Oye, Trump, a chronicle of his time in the U.S.

Support for López Obrador skyrocketed among the diaspora during this time. In 2018, López Obrador won 64 percent of the votes of Mexicans abroad, helping the candidate ascend to the presidency. Support groups such as Morena New York Committee 1, which holds rallies in support of the party and promotes the vote among the diaspora, have since sprung up across the U.S.

Given the size of Mexico’s diaspora, “if everyone participated, they could define the outcome of any election,” said Castillo Loza.

Verónica Pérez Rojas, a Mexico City native who now resides in Chicago and is a member of the Coalition of Mexican Immigrants, an advocacy group for Mexicans living in the U.S., said López Obrador reinvigorated her desire to participate in Mexican political life. Early in his presidency, in 2019, Rojas decided to tune in to one of López Obrador’s daily press conferences, known as mañaneras, which are all streamed and available on YouTube. She was immediately drawn to his message about changing Mexico’s political, social and economic establishments.

“The first day I heard his mañanera, I was in shock,” Rojas said. “And from there on, I thought: You know what? I need to participate.”

Attention to Mexicans abroad is likely to continue to play a part in domestic politics. Nearly 1.5 million Mexicans living abroad currently hold valid voting IDs, according to Claudia Zavala, a councilperson at the National Electoral Institute. Millions more are eligible to receive one.

Come 2024, Mexicans living abroad will be able to cast state and federal ballots via mail, at polling stations inside 20 Mexican consulates across the U.S. and, for the first time, from the convenience of their smartphones.

Given the size of Mexico’s diaspora, “if everyone participated, they could define the outcome of any election,” said Castillo Loza.

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Beyond votes, diasporas may play a significant role in fundraising and support for political parties.

Political scientist Aleks Szczerbiak noted that voters abroad add to election enthusiasm through their commitment to participate in Poland’s political life.

In the past few years, India’s Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Modi, has garnered popularity among the global Indian diaspora, flexing its strength abroad through well-attended rallies and overseas organizations that serve as megaphones for the ruling party’s accomplishments in India.

Even if Indians abroad can’t participate in domestic elections, organizations such as work towards “strengthening social bonds among Asian Indians” and spreading a positive image of the BJP abroad, according to their website.

For Turkey, the diaspora has played a significant role in “active political mobilization,” particularly in lobbying for the preservation of a distinct Turkish identity in Europe, through government organizations such as the Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities, Arkilic said.

When it comes to Mexican elections, the impact of the diaspora is still unknown. As Castillo Loza pointed out, the Mexican diaspora is not monolithic, and is composed of successful businesspeople as well as immigrants who left their home country out of economic necessity.

Pressure from the diaspora has pushed the country to offer more legislative representation for Mexicans living abroad. In 2021, “migrant deputies” — representatives of the Mexican diaspora — joined Congress. These deputies, who must live abroad to be eligible for the post, help ensure that the demands of Mexicans are represented adequately in congress and have worked to lay technical foundations for future diaspora representatives.

Politicians continue to try to figure out how the growing diaspora may shape Mexican politics overall. “The great challenge that Mexico faces is not whether it should elect a migrant deputy or a migrant senator; it is how the new representation of the nation will be built within the composition of the state,” said Tonatiuh Guillén López, former commissioner of Mexico’s National Migration Institute and author of Mexico, A Transterritorial Nation. For Guillén López, Mexico has not really caught on to the fact that a third of its population lives outside of its borders, and that this constituency has its own political inclinations. If Mexicans living abroad had full representation in the Mexican government, the country would change dramatically.

“Mexicans living in the United States make up a politically mature community that has had to learn how to participate in politics in order to fight for their rights, as Mexicans and as migrants,” said Alfonso Seiva, president of the Chicago-based Coalition of Mexican Immigrants.

Mexicans in the United States may find themselves doubly solicited as voters in 2024 as they face two contentious elections. As the Mexican and American binational community multiplies, these voters could both determine the next Mexican president and help elect the next American one.